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Have you ever heard of the Roman god Janus? The god of beginnings and duality, often depicted with two faces looking in opposite directions.
A loose analogy perhaps, but thinking about Janus recently helped me make sense of this month’s market shifting events. Politicians and investors have been changing face, changing tack and in some cases moving completely against their own long-held positions. Why my Classics degree had to be invoked to reach that conclusion is something I cannot explain, but here we are.
The most obvious departure point in this Janus inspired moment is our Prime Minister, Kier Starmer. In PMQs, as summarised in a sharp piece by The Times' Tom Peck, Starmer stumbled over a simple question. Would he U turn on the fiscal commitments set out in his manifesto. The timing matters because it comes ahead of Rachel Reeves’ Autumn Budget, where the Chancellor will have to contend with gloomy forecasts from the OBR.
Productivity has slumped.
The budgetary black hole has not shifted.
And according to recent warnings, including an op-ed by Goldman returnee Rishi Sunak, the gilt market may be on the verge of revolt.
In other words, stability looks fragile.
Markets are being driven not only by data but by leaders changing their minds in real time.
Across the Atlantic, Trump’s headline reversal was less surprising. In his latest attempt to win over President Putin, followed quickly by the breakdown of those talks, Trump has swung from reportedly signalling Ukraine’s defeat to imposing sanctions on two major Russian oil giants, Rosneft and Lukoil. No one expected the diplomatic honeymoon to last, but the pivot was still significant.
And this Janus effect is not limited to individuals. When the current administration took office, investors across the US celebrated. The iron grip of the SEC’s Gary Gensler would be lifted and deregulation would finally arrive.
But the mood has turned. Following the collapses of Tricolor and First Brands, rising institutional concern over private credit and Jamie Dimon’s call for some economic pest control, the tone has shifted entirely. To regulate or not to regulate is now a live debate on Wall Street.
We are living through a period where conviction lasts about as long as a news cycle. That is the real driver of volatility.
I mentioned yin and yang in my last newsletter, and what we are seeing now is an extension of that same duality. Markets, investors and political leaders are changing course on a sixpence, leaving any sense of stability feeling like a relic of a different era.
Check back in next time to see what part of ancient mythology I will inevitably ruin next.